The Development of African Agriculture

African agriculture declined during the last decades of the 20th century, with low productivity and increased dependency on food imports and aid. International trade regimes, local drought and war contributed to the decline. (Photo: D. Leraand)

Agriculture constitutes the backbone of most African economies and an overwhelming share of the continents poor rely on the sector for their livelihood. African agriculture is commonly characterized as being in crisis, but there are also successes. The greatest failure is that food production has not kept pace with population growth.

African economies have been declining since the 1960s. Only recently has the trend reversed with net economic growth. Agriculture has the same pattern. Most analysts consider a general neglect of the sector as the leading factor behind the economic decline, with decades of poor policies and institutional failures as the primary cause for an undercapitalized and uncompetitive agricultural industry. As the World Bank states: "If agriculture is in trouble, Africa is in trouble."

Decline - and revival
African agriculture has, with few exceptions, been in trouble since independence, around 1960. Countries that used to be self-sufficient in food - and net exporters of agricultural produce - today depend on imports. This is principally a consequence of population increase outstripping agricultural productivity, partly because of changes in consumption patterns, partly due to nature's curtailment, but mainly due to political neglect. Also, political strife has hindered agricultural development and food production in several countries.

Profound changes in smallholder agriculture in Africa in the first half of the 20th century - the introduction of new products and methods, and new market opportunities - increased production. But this trend turned in the second half, particularly from the 1960s on. Aggregate agricultural performance has remained positive during the latter part of the century, but progress has lagged behind other developing regions - and it has failed to match population growth.

Agricultural productivity stagnated markedly from the 1970s, and agricultural growth has averaged 2-2.5% per annum over the last three decades. Over the past two decades, per capita agricultural production fell by about 5%, while increasing by ca. 40% in other developing countries. The result is falling per capita incomes in agriculture, and in an increasing level of food insecurity at both national and household levels.

While agricultural productivity soared worldwide during the second half of the 20th century, yield increases were minimal in Africa and fell dramatically behind those in other developing countries. As a result, caloric intake in Africa is the lowest in the world, and Africa is the only region where the number of malnourished children was higher in the late 1990s than in the mid-1960s.

Insufficient productivity increase has also resulted in the dwindling of Africa's share of world agricultural exports. This fell from 8% to 2% over the past 40 years, Africa going from a net food exporter to net importer. Agricultural imports now account for about 15% of Africa's total. This means a huge bill, especially for feeding its people, because the share of gross export revenues needed for importing food has increased considerably.

Africa faces a major challenge feeding its growing population, expected to increase from 832 million in 2002 to over 1.8 billion in 2050. Nigeria, the continents most populous country, faces a stern test. (Photo: T.S. Knudsen)

Challenges - and potentials
Being defined as the main engine of economic growth and poverty reduction in Africa, the agricultural sector faces an immense challenge of increasing productivity to the target 6% growth rate per annum through 2020. Agricultural growth has already been considerable with an output in sub-Saharan Africa of 5.5 % on annual average since 1995. Much of the growth has been in smallholder agriculture, despite declining investments and support.

A strong revival of African agriculture is needed. It is estimated that if the self-sufficiency ratio in sub-Saharan Africa is to stay the same in 2015 as in 1995-97 (about 85%), the sub-continent will have to meet 118 million tons of its projected needs of 139 million tons of cereals through increased production in the region itself, requiring a substantial increase in output. As NEPAD points out in its "Comprehensive Africa Agricultural Development Program", this can also be seen an opportunity, the large shortfalls providing a potential market for small farmers.

Africa has a great potential for increased agricultural output and food production, being largely self-sufficient, and at the same time being an exporter. However, huge investments are required to utilize the potential and accelerate agricultural growth and rural development, including substantial development assistance.

Africa currently imports 25% of its food. In the coming decades, Africa will have to feed a population that is expected to increase from 832 million people in 2002 to over 1.8 billion in 2050. At current trends, it is estimated that Africa will be able to feed less than half its population by 2015. Between 1980 and 1995 per capita food production increased 27 percent in Asia and 12 percent in Latin America. In sub-Saharan Africa, it fell 8 percent. Indeed, Africa is the only region where the average per capita food production has been constantly falling for the past 40 years - and still is falling.

With the right policies and implementation, Africa is capable of tripling its agricultural output. A major difference in the development of Asia and Africa over the last decades is that Asia has had high and rising food production per capita, whereas it has been low and falling in Africa. The difference can, to quite an extent, be ascribed to Asia's green revolution, with high-yielding crops and the use of fertilizers. In the last four decades in Africa, less than 40 percent of the gains in cereal production came from increased yields. The rest was from expansion of the land devoted to arable agriculture. In future, Africa must depend more on yield gains than land expansion to achieve food security.

During the 1980s, the international financial institutions insisted on African countries implementing structural adjustment programs, promoting export-oriented production, and liberalizing of national economies. This included the removal of public price stabilization structures and subsidies, while at the same time agricultural subsidies prevailed in the North, not least in the USA and the EU. This uneven competition placed poor African farmers at a disadvantage, making it extremely difficult for them to compete (even in Africa), despite considerably lower production costs. As a World Bank economist summed up the imbalance: An average European cow receives USD 2.50 per day in subsidies, while 75 % of Africans live on less than USD 2 a day.

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